Research Papers

Risk Analysis of Reactor Pressure Vessels Considering Modeling-Induced Uncertainties

[+] Author and Article Information
Matthew E. Riley

Department of Mechanical Engineering,
University of Idaho,
875 Perimeter Dr.,
MS 0902,
Moscow, ID 83844-0902
e-mail: riley@uidaho.edu

William M. Hoffman

Department of Mechanical Engineering,
University of Idaho,
875 Perimeter Dr.,
MS 0902,
Moscow, ID 83844-0902
e-mail: hoff4746@vandals.uidaho.edu

Manuscript received October 13, 2015; final manuscript received December 8, 2016; published online January 12, 2017. Editor: Ashley F. Emery.

J. Verif. Valid. Uncert 1(4), 041005 (Jan 12, 2017) (10 pages) Paper No: VVUQ-15-1046; doi: 10.1115/1.4035444 History: Received October 13, 2015; Revised December 08, 2016

Uncertainties in simulation models arise not only from the parameters that are used within the model, but also due to the modeling process itself—specifically the identification of a model that most accurately predicts the true physical response of interest. In risk-analysis studies, it is critical to consider the effect that all forms of uncertainty have on the overall level of uncertainty. This work develops an approach to quantify the effect of both parametric and model-form uncertainties. The developed approach is demonstrated on the assessment of the fatigue-based risk associated with a reactor pressure vessel subjected to a thermal shock event.

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Fig. 1

Surface-breaking elliptical crack [9]

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Fig. 2

Sample basic belief assignment on crack length

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Fig. 4

Basic belief assignment on crack length a

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Fig. 6

Upper and lower bounds of belief for four cases

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Fig. 8

Upper and lower bounds of belief for case 4 of mixed problem

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Fig. 7

Horsetail plot of CBF and CPF functions for case 4

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Fig. 5

CPF and CBF plots for four cases at t = 64 min



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