Discrete-time state-space models have been extensively used in simulation-based design of dynamical systems. These prediction models may not accurately represent the true physics of a dynamical system due to potentially flawed understanding of the system, missing physics, and/or numerical approximations. To improve the validity of these models at new design locations, this paper proposes a novel dynamic model discrepancy quantification (DMDQ) framework. Time-instantaneous prediction models are constructed for the model discrepancies of “hidden” state variables and are used to correct the discrete-time prediction models at each time step. For discrete-time models, the “hidden” state variables and their discrepancies are coupled over two adjacent time steps. Also, the state variables cannot be directly measured. These factors complicate the construction of the model discrepancy prediction models. The proposed DMDQ framework overcomes these challenges by proposing two discrepancy modeling approaches: an estimation-modeling approach and a modeling-estimation approach. The former first estimates the model discrepancy and then builds a non-parametric prediction model of the model discrepancy; the latter builds a parametric prediction model of the model discrepancy first and then estimates the parameters of the prediction model. A subsampling method is developed to reduce the computational effort in building the two types of prediction models. A mathematical example and an electrical circuit dynamical system demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed DMDQ framework and highlight the advantages and disadvantages of the proposed approaches.
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ASME 2018 International Design Engineering Technical Conferences and Computers and Information in Engineering Conference
August 26–29, 2018
Quebec City, Quebec, Canada
Conference Sponsors:
- Design Engineering Division
- Computers and Information in Engineering Division
ISBN:
978-0-7918-5176-0
PROCEEDINGS PAPER
Dynamic Model Discrepancy Quantification in Simulation-Based Design of Dynamical Systems
Zhen Hu,
Zhen Hu
University of Michigan - Dearborn, Dearborn, MI
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Zissimos P. Mourelatos,
Zissimos P. Mourelatos
Oakland University, Rochester, MI
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Sankaran Mahadevan
Sankaran Mahadevan
Vanderbilt University, Nashville, TN
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Zhen Hu
University of Michigan - Dearborn, Dearborn, MI
Chao Hu
Iowa State University, Ames, IA
Zissimos P. Mourelatos
Oakland University, Rochester, MI
Sankaran Mahadevan
Vanderbilt University, Nashville, TN
Paper No:
DETC2018-85374, V02BT03A052; 14 pages
Published Online:
November 2, 2018
Citation
Hu, Z, Hu, C, Mourelatos, ZP, & Mahadevan, S. "Dynamic Model Discrepancy Quantification in Simulation-Based Design of Dynamical Systems." Proceedings of the ASME 2018 International Design Engineering Technical Conferences and Computers and Information in Engineering Conference. Volume 2B: 44th Design Automation Conference. Quebec City, Quebec, Canada. August 26–29, 2018. V02BT03A052. ASME. https://doi.org/10.1115/DETC2018-85374
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