Former works on railway track geometry degradation are reviewed and their advantage and dis-advantages discussed. Railway track degradation can be geometry or structural degradation. This paper focuses on track geometry degradation and tries to propose additional railway track geometry degradation models based on real data on existing operational line.

The case study is a conventional railway line in Ethiopia “Ethio-Djibouti standard gauge railway line”. Track geometry data collected by track geometry measuring vehicle for 156 weeks and for a length of 323 kilometers is taken for analysis. 114km is a double track line and the rest is a single line track. Models are developed for both single and double track lines.

Degradation models developed are statistical probabilistic models which can be used for prediction purpose with the accuracy in need. The probabilistic nature allows having marginal values for confidence interval in need. Effects of some factors on track geometry degradation are also analyzed. Most of the results show similar results to former studies but the effect of speed on track geometry degradation is different.

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