There is an increasing need for utilization of ocean renewable energy (ORE) around Japanese coast because Japan is surrounded by ocean. Because technologies for harnessing ORE have not been mature enough, Japanese government selects some demonstration sites for ORE devices and some demonstration projects are going. As these projects are progressed, the operation and maintenance (O&M) activities will increase and become essential factors for the success of demonstration projects. Hence, weather window analysis is required to quantify the levels of access for ORE devices in the demonstration projects, and commercial projects in the future.
In this paper, two new parameters are proposed in order to evaluate accessibility to ORE devices. One is the operational probability, and the other is the forecasted waiting time. The operational probability assesses weather duration with considering variability of wave condition. The forecasted waiting time is an expectation value of waiting time before O&M planners get next chance to arrange the O&M activities.
In order to check the effectivity of the proposed 2 parameters, accessibility is evaluated for significant wave height in terms of the 2 proposed parameters, these are
• Operational probability
• Forecasted waiting time
and 3 conventional parameters, these are
• Excess probability
• Persistence probability
• Waiting time between windows
The accessibility is evaluated at two locations along the Japanese coast.
This study reveals that large differences are caused between persistence probability and operational probability when operational wave height limit occurs intermittently and required window length is long. The forecasted waiting time has the same variation tendency as the waiting time between windows.