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research-article

Forensic Uncertainty Quantification with a Case Study on the Explosive Dispersal of Particles

[+] Author and Article Information
Kyle T. Hughes

Graduate Research Assistant, Dep. of Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering, University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida 32611
kylethughes89@ufl.edu

S. Balachandar

Professor, Dep. of Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering, University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida 32611
bala1s@ufl.edu

Nam H. Kim

Professor, Dep. of Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering, University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida 32611
nkim@ufl.edu

Chanyoung Park

Postdoctoral Research Associate, Dep. of Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering, University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida 32611
ishallarise@gmail.com

Raphael Haftka

Professor, Dep. of Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering, University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida 32611
kylethughes89@ufl.edu

Angela S Diggs

Team Lead, Air Force Research Laboratory, Eglin Air Force Base, Florida 32542
angela.diggs.1@us.af.mil

Donald M. Littrell

Team Lead, Air Force Research Laboratory, Eglin Air Force Base, Florida 32542
donald.littrell@us.af.mil

Jason Darr

Research Technologist, Air Force Research Laboratory, Eglin Air Force Base, Florida 32542
Jason.Darr@is4s.com

1Corresponding author.

ASME doi:10.1115/1.4043478 History: Received June 21, 2018; Revised April 05, 2019

Abstract

In the course of validation, simulations are often compared to data from experiments conducted years in the past and the experimental setup is long disassembled. Poor knowledge of uncertain inputs, uncertain outputs, and the experimental setup often hinders the validation effort. Therefore, there is a need in the community for forensic investigation of past experiments to gain in-depth knowledge of experiments and present this knowledge to the community. This process is labeled forensic uncertainty quantification. The word forensic is chosen both to invoke the analogy of a crime scene investigation and to refer to the uncertainty quantification taking place long after the experiments are completed. To demonstrate the efficacy of forensic uncertainty quantification, an investigation of six explosive tests conducted at Eglin Air Force Base are presented as a case study. The explosive tests measured the particle position with x-ray photography, contact front with high-speed photography, and the shock time of arrival with eight pressure probes. The tests were conducted to provide validation data for particle drag models in the extreme regime of detonation, but were conducted more than three years before the beginning of the simulation effort. Careful examination of the experimental documentation discovered a test configuration not recalled by the experimentalist. The forensic investigation measured the uncertain inputs through testing of representative samples and found significant departures of the particle density and explosive density from reported values, two critical simulation inputs. Finally, knowledge of the additional test configurations aids interpretation of the particle position results.

Section 4: U.S. Gov Employees + Reg Authors
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