Many sources of uncertainty exist when emissions are modeled for a gas turbine combustion system. They originate from uncertain inputs, boundary conditions, calibration, or lack of sufficient fidelity in a model. In this paper, a nonintrusive polynomial chaos expansion (NIPCE) method is coupled with a chemical reactor network (CRN) model using Python to quantify uncertainties of NOx emission in a premixed burner. The first objective of uncertainty quantification (UQ) in this study is development of a global sensitivity analysis method based on the NIPCE method to capture aleatory uncertainty on NOx emission due to variation of operating conditions. The second objective is uncertainty analysis (UA) of NOx emission due to uncertain Arrhenius parameters in a chemical kinetic mechanism to study epistemic uncertainty in emission modeling. A two-reactor CRN consisting of a perfectly stirred reactor (PSR) and a plug flow reactor (PFR) is constructed in this study using Cantera to model NOx emission in a benchmark premixed burner under gas turbine operating conditions. The results of uncertainty and sensitivity analysis (SA) using NIPCE based on point collocation method (PCM) are then compared with the results of advanced Monte Carlo simulation (MCS). A set of surrogate models is also developed based on the NIPCE approach and compared with the forward model in Cantera to predict NOx emissions. The results show the capability of NIPCE approach for UQ using a limited number of evaluations to develop a UQ-enabled emission prediction tool for gas turbine combustion systems.
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December 2018
Research-Article
Uncertainty Quantification of NOx Emission Due to Operating Conditions and Chemical Kinetic Parameters in a Premixed Burner
Sajjad Yousefian,
Sajjad Yousefian
Mechanical Engineering, Combustion Chemistry
Centre, and Ryan Institute,
National University of Ireland,
Galway, Ireland;
Centre, and Ryan Institute,
National University of Ireland,
Galway, Ireland;
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Gilles Bourque,
Gilles Bourque
Siemens Canada Ltd,
9545 Cote de Liesse Road,
Montreal QC H9P 1A5, Canada;
9545 Cote de Liesse Road,
Montreal QC H9P 1A5, Canada;
Department of Mechanical Engineering,
McGill University,
Montréal, QC H3A 0C3, Canada
McGill University,
Montréal, QC H3A 0C3, Canada
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Rory F. D. Monaghan
Rory F. D. Monaghan
Mechanical Engineering, Combustion Chemistry
Centre, and Ryan Institute,
National University of Ireland,
Galway, Ireland;
Centre, and Ryan Institute,
National University of Ireland,
Galway, Ireland;
Research Centre for Marine and
Renewable Energy,
Galway, Ireland
Renewable Energy,
Galway, Ireland
Search for other works by this author on:
Sajjad Yousefian
Mechanical Engineering, Combustion Chemistry
Centre, and Ryan Institute,
National University of Ireland,
Galway, Ireland;
Centre, and Ryan Institute,
National University of Ireland,
Galway, Ireland;
Gilles Bourque
Siemens Canada Ltd,
9545 Cote de Liesse Road,
Montreal QC H9P 1A5, Canada;
9545 Cote de Liesse Road,
Montreal QC H9P 1A5, Canada;
Department of Mechanical Engineering,
McGill University,
Montréal, QC H3A 0C3, Canada
McGill University,
Montréal, QC H3A 0C3, Canada
Rory F. D. Monaghan
Mechanical Engineering, Combustion Chemistry
Centre, and Ryan Institute,
National University of Ireland,
Galway, Ireland;
Centre, and Ryan Institute,
National University of Ireland,
Galway, Ireland;
Research Centre for Marine and
Renewable Energy,
Galway, Ireland
Renewable Energy,
Galway, Ireland
1Corresponding author.
Manuscript received June 21, 2018; final manuscript received July 2, 2018; published online October 1, 2018. Editor: Jerzy T. Sawicki.
J. Eng. Gas Turbines Power. Dec 2018, 140(12): 121005 (11 pages)
Published Online: October 1, 2018
Article history
Received:
June 21, 2018
Revised:
July 2, 2018
Citation
Yousefian, S., Bourque, G., and Monaghan, R. F. D. (October 1, 2018). "Uncertainty Quantification of NOx Emission Due to Operating Conditions and Chemical Kinetic Parameters in a Premixed Burner." ASME. J. Eng. Gas Turbines Power. December 2018; 140(12): 121005. https://doi.org/10.1115/1.4040897
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