The theory of quasi-determinism, for the mechanics of linear random wave groups was obtained by Boccotti in the eighties. The first formulation of the theory deals with the largest crest amplitude; the second formulation deals with the largest wave height. In this paper the first formulation of Boccotti’s theory, particularized for long-crested waves, is extended to the second-order. The analytical expressions of the nonlinear free surface displacement and velocity potential are obtained. The space–time evolution of the nonlinear wave group, when a very large crest occurs at a fixed time and location, is then shown. Finally the second-order probability of exceedance of the crest amplitude is obtained and validated by Monte Carlo simulation.
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